The crypto market is preparing for an important upcoming occasion, when more than 22,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options and 133,000 Ethereum (ETH) options are due to expire.
This scenario has all the makings of an event that could stir up volatility in the market. And since this isn’t just an Ethereum situation but also a Bitcoin one, the trade and investment activities of both sets of individuals bear watching.
This event is particularly critical, given that the expiration of so many options contracts usually brings about heightened market activity and more pronounced price movements. We need to take a close look at the upcoming expiration. What can the main metrics tell us about likely market outcomes?
Contents [hide]
Breakdown of the $BTC and $ETH Options Expiry
Bitcoin Options Expiry: $1.83 Billion in Notional Value at Stake. The expiry of Bitcoin options is very significant indeed, with no fewer than 22,000 BTC options contracts set to expire. The notional value of these contracts combined is something like 1.83 billion dollars, which gives us a sense of the kind of impact that could have on Bitcoin’s price.
At present, the put/call ratio sits at 0.84. This indicates that there are more bullish players in the Bitcoin options market, with a slight edge in favor of call options over put options. Call option traders are banking on an upward price move for Bitcoin, while put option traders are prepping for a possible downward price move.
Massive options expiry incoming!
22,000 $BTC options are set to expire:
– Put/Call Ratio: 0.84
– Max Pain Price: $85,000
– Notional Value: $1.83 billion133,000 $ETH options are expiring:
– Put/Call Ratio: 0.62
– Max Pain Price: $2,000
– Notional Value: $260 millionExpect… pic.twitter.com/oRQK3s9wie
— Kyledoops (@kyledoops) March 21, 2025
Bitcoin’s projected max pain price is $85,000. This price point indicates the price at which options sellers take the maximum financial hit. To put it another way, the max pain price is where the most options contracts are out of the money. It could serve as a critical pivot point and possible inflection point for BTC price action as we approach options expiry.
Because of the high notional value, the expiration of these options could cause volatility in Bitcoin’s price. Speculators and institutional traders may adjust their positions in the aftermath of this event.
Ethereum Options Expiry: A $260 Million Impact
A hefty Ethereum options expiry is coming, with 133,000 ETH options contracts slated to lapse. While it isn’t anywhere near the Bitcoin expiry for notional value—about $260 million and counting—that influences capital flows, it still is a big enough deal for ETH to matter.
Ethereum’s put/call ratio is 0.62. This means that the sentiment is somewhat bullish for Ethereum. There are more call options outstanding than put options, which indicates that if traders are making bets that are influenced by their expectations, then they expect Ethereum’s price to move up in the near term and to move up in a way that more directly impacts its own price rather than in a way that primarily impacts Bitcoin’s price. However, this much open interest means traders must be expecting a big move of some kind, and if the move goes the other way, then the outlook could change in an instant.
Ethereum may have a max pain price too—that is, a price where held options become most worthless—but I can’t seem to find it. So if options held against the ETH marketplace don’t help us forecast anything, what are they good for? Why are institutional traders even dealing in this relatively thin market anyway? Given that ETH is a supposed security, can these traders be doing anything legal? The thinness argument is especially worrisome.
The Market Impact: Expect Volatility
A total of $1.83 billion in Bitcoin options and $260 million in Ethereum options set to expire makes for a clear—and rather ominous—new scenario for crypto traders. This much open interest in a market we’re already seeing movement in means new opportunity. But it also means heightened volatility and risk.
Traders need to be especially cognizant of what these steep price movements could do to their P&Ls (profit and losses). And with these looming expirations, it’s not just retail traders who are on the edge of their seats; institutional traders have quite a bit of open interest to manage as well.
Substantial price fluctuations are expected in the market as traders adjust their portfolios in anticipation of the expiry date. Historically, these events have been accompanied by short-term volatility, as the event can trigger both profit-taking and the liquidation of positions.
What to Expect from the Crypto Market
Potential price action is on the way as the expiry date approaches, and traders and investors need to be ready. They should watch for possible volatility in and around what some price analysts are calling the “max pain” point for options traders to be at either $28,000 or $24,000 for Bitcoin. In any case, options expiry for top crypto assets can lead to a wide range of outcomes depending on how traders and institutions behave in the days just before the big event.
Considering the size of the positions involved, market players ought to be on red alert in the coming days. If you are looking to capitalize on the kind of price movement that could occur, a careful analysis of the actual price action around the time of expiry will be of the utmost importance. Of course, you could take the opposite approach—if you are not looking to make any significant trades—that is, you could wait for the dust to settle in the wake of the expiry before making any significant trading decisions.
Final Thoughts
The expiration of a large number of options contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum is set to bring (heightened) volatility to the crypto markets.
With over $2 billion in notional value at stake, traders are likely to react in (significant) ways to any price movements leading up to the event.
With two max pain prices at critical levels for (both) Bitcoin and Ethereum, could this event serve as a (turning point) for short-term market trends?
When the countdown reaches zero, spectators will know for sure whether the United States is the same kind of investment as the next ripe apples and oranges lower down the street—or a much sweeter deal in the end. Maybe that’s the only thing anyone can say for certain about how the last fruit will fall.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news!
Image Source: kaedeezign/123RF // Image Effects by Colorcinch
