Recent data from Polymarket reveals a shift in betting odds between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump’s winning odds, which peaked at 67% on October 30, have since dropped to 58.1% as of November 2.
Meanwhile, Harris’s odds have risen from a low of 34.4% to 41.1%. This shift comes as a Washington Post poll shows that Trump and Harris are nearly neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, one of the most decisive swing states.
Polymarket shows that Trump's winning rate has fallen since it reached a peak of 67% on October 30, and has dropped to 58.1% on November 2, while Harris's has increased from a low of 34.4% to 41.1%. A Washington Post poll found that in the final days, Harris and Trump's support… pic.twitter.com/jJFTPv3h1r
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 2, 2024
Among the high-stakes bettors on Polymarket is a French user who has reportedly placed over $38 million on Trump’s victory. The Wall Street Journal reports that the bettor, who identifies as a French national and former bank trader in the United States, claims his wager isn’t politically motivated.
Rather, he views it as a high-risk financial venture with the potential for an $80 million payout if Trump wins. However, a Harris victory would mean a significant, if not total, loss for him.
According to WSJ, the French user who spent more than $38 million on betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket said he had no political purpose. He claimed to be a Frenchman who had lived in the United States and worked as a trader in a bank. If Trump's victory came true, he could…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 2, 2024
The current fluctuations in Polymarket odds reflect a broader uncertainty in the race as both candidates vie for key battlegrounds. While Trump’s odds initially surged, the recent downturn and Harris’s upward momentum suggest shifting dynamics as the final days approach.
With high-stakes bets and pivotal polls in play, the outcome remains unclear, leaving both candidates’ supporters—and those betting on their success—closely watching the final developments.
The stakes are high, not only for the candidates but for investors banking on the results, adding yet another layer of suspense to an already closely-watched race.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any service.
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