Bitcoin Cash went through its hard fork on Thursday, November 15 at 17:52 UTC after the mining of block number 556,767. Almost two days later, the two factions that remain are Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV. While SV had the lead in mining power before the split at over 70 percent, the tables turned immediately the fork activated and ABC took the lead straight away. ABC has held on to that lead, at one point being 50 blocks ahead. However, SV has been quickly catching up in the past 24 hours, at one point being only 6 blocks behind. However, research has indicated that both are mining at losses.
The Hard Fork Aftermath
It was a fork that the whole industry tilted its attention towards, and it didn’t disappoint. Before the fork, Coin Dance indicated that SV had a towering lead over ABC on mining power. According to the analytics website, SV had the support of SV Pool and Coingeek, two pools that reportedly controlled more than 51 percent of the network hash rate.
However, the tables were quickly turned by the ABC faction immediately after the fork. ABC took an early lead in terms of blocks mined, and the lead only became bigger as the mining progressed. ABC had the backing of Bitcoin.com, Antpool and BTC.com. The former is affiliated with ABC’s biggest proponent Roger Ver, with the latter two being controlled by Bitmain, whose CEO Jihan Wu had pledged support to the ABC faction.
As soon as ABC took the lead, crypto enthusiasts took to Twitter and Reddit to condemn SV and its leader Craig Wright, stating that it was clear he had lost the war. One of them was Joseph Young, a crypto investor and analyst who tweeted:
Bitcoin Cash (ABC) ahead, more hash power, more activity, higher price. 4x higher price (margin).
Seems like a win for BCH. Jihan Wu and Chinese miners not even needed. Certainly not enough for a 51% attack on BCH. BSV nodes reportedly crashing.
Faketoshi lost, community won pic.twitter.com/5LzuKMX3lf
— Joseph Young (@iamjosephyoung) November 15, 2018
Similar sentiments were echoed by many, with Wright taking the brunt of most of the attacks.
As the mining progressed, ABC extended its lead over SV and it looked like it was game over for SV. However, the trend began to change, ever so slightly and SV began bridging the gap. While at one point the gap had been as high as 50 blocks, it was reduced to as little as 6 and SV seemed set to catch up with ABC.
Crypto analysts pointed the shift to the fact that Ver and Bitmain brought out their A-game too early and were gradually wearing out. SV’s leader, the self-proclaimed Satoshi held a similar view, stating that the race hadn’t even started and yet Ver was doing sprints.
In our hash competition, we have seen the ABC team bring on their strongest sprinters. We are just at the trials and not yet on the finals to Marathon and they have made a remarkable burst to do a 9.9 second 100m (unfortunately in the wrong direction)
— Dr Craig S Wright (@ProfFaustus) November 16, 2018
At press time, ABC was 19 blocks ahead of SV, with 282 blocks having been mined under the new consensus rules according to Coin Dance. However, Coin Dance only accounts for the blocks mined, regardless of the mining difficulty. The difficulty may have a bearing on the speed with which new blocks are mined and could be the reason SV is lagging behind.
Bitcoin.com is the largest contributor to ABC’s mining power, accounting for 45 percent of the mining power. BTC.com at 22 percent, Antpool at 19 percent and ViaBTC at 9 percent are second, third and fourth respectively. ABC controls 60 percent of the hash rate, with a 55 percent lead over SV on the proof of work.
At 52 percent, Coingeek is the largest mining pool on the SV side. The pool is controlled by Calvin Ayre, the billionaire investor who, together with Wright, leads the SV faction. SV Pool and Mempool at 19 and 17 percent are second and third respectively. SV accounts for 40 percent of the hash rate.
According to Fork Monitor, an analytics site launched by BitMEX, both sides were mining at losses, with SV miners experiencing greater losses.
Bitcoin Cash – ABC & SV split metrics update
SV miners have estimated gross losses of around $397,000, compared to ABC miners on $365,000 of losses. Assuming electricity is the only cost. ABC has an 11 block lead overall.https://t.co/U9hbK4peip pic.twitter.com/MKpHmJ49SB
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) November 17, 2018